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Canada's Economy Posts Surprise Annualized Fourth Quarter Growth of 2.6%

Canada's gross domestic product in the fourth quarter expanded by 2.6% on an annualized basis, surpassing widespread expectations, as a jump in consumer spending, business investments and exports lifted growth, data showed on Friday. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected the GDP to grow by 1.8% in annualized terms in the quarter ending December, similar to Bank of Canada's predictions from last month. The third quarter growth rate was revised to 2.2% from 1% earlier, Statistics Canada said.

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Canada’s Economy Shows Signs of Life Amidst Tariff Uncertainty Δ1.92

The Canadian economy grew 2.6 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024, beating expectations and driven by higher spending on vehicles, increased exports, and business investments. This unexpected growth may provide some relief to businesses and investors, but economists caution that tariff uncertainty could still weigh heavily on the economy. The Bank of Canada's next interest rate decision will be closely watched, as policymakers consider whether the recent data is enough to justify further rate cuts.

Trump Tariffs Threaten to Derail Canada's Economic Recovery Δ1.82

Two years of economic growth may be wiped off permanently. Unemployment could rise to 8% from 6.6% in January, analysts say. At least 90% chance of Bank of Canada cutting rates next week.

Tariffs Drive Canada Into Recession, Cause Price Spike Δ1.82

Canada's economy is headed for a contraction — the first since the Covid-19 crisis — if a tariff war with its largest trading partner lasts for long. Economists have estimated that President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Canada will shave 2 to 4 percentage points off the country’s gross domestic product growth. The administration imposed levies of 10% on Canadian energy and 25% on all other goods, starting Tuesday.

India’s Economy Recovers, Providing Relief to Policymakers Δ1.80

India's economy rebounded with a 6.2% growth rate in the fourth quarter, outpacing expectations and offering some respite to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's ambitious growth plans. The GDP figure was in line with the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists and higher than a revised reading of 5.6% expansion in the previous quarter. However, concerns persist about the country's growth prospects for the next year, with exports and government spending expected to play a crucial role in sustaining momentum.

Tariffs Threaten Canada's Economic Recovery Period Δ1.80

Canada is facing significant economic challenges as U.S. tariffs that took effect on Tuesday threaten to derail its fledgling recovery, fueling consumer price inflation and potentially triggering a recession. The country's reliance on trade with the United States makes it vulnerable to protracted trade wars, which could have far-reaching consequences for its economy. If the tariffs are sustained indefinitely, they could wipe out two years' worth of economic growth.

Canadian Dollar Touches 14-Month High as U.S. Dollar Slides on Fed, Trump Δ1.80

The Canadian dollar has reached its strongest level in 14 months against the US dollar, thanks to uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's policy decisions under President Donald Trump. The decline of the US dollar has helped steer currency market direction, with other currencies benefiting from the shift. Investors are taking advantage of the weaker greenback to buy Canadian dollars, pushing up the value.

Tsx Recoups Much of February Decline as Financials Rally Δ1.79

Canada's main stock index rose on Friday, clawing back much of its monthly decline, led by gains for financial and industrial shares after domestic data showed the economy growing more strongly than expected. The S&P/TSX composite index ended up 265.21 points, or 1.1%, at 25,393.45. This upward trend is largely attributed to improved bank earnings, which provided a measure of relief that the economy may be on a better footing than initially thought.

U.S. GDP Growth on Track for Negative First Quarter, Atlanta Fed Indicator Says Δ1.78

The central bank's GDPNow tracker is indicating that gross domestic product is on pace to shrink by 1.5% for the January-through-March period, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta measure. Early economic data for the first quarter of 2025 is pointing towards negative growth, with consumers spending less than expected during inclement January weather and exports being weak. The downgrade coincides with some other measures showing a growth slowdown.

US Economic Activity Up Slightly as Tariff Worries Rise, Fed Survey Shows Δ1.78

U.S. economic activity has shown a slight uptick since mid-January, although growth remains uneven across regions, with some districts reporting stagnation or contraction. The Federal Reserve's Beige Book highlights rising uncertainty among businesses regarding the impact of President Trump's tariff policies and immigration plans on future growth and labor demand. Amid these concerns, expectations for economic activity remain cautiously optimistic, despite warnings of potential inflation and slower growth.

India's Economic Growth Picked up on Rising Government, Consumer Spending Δ1.77

India's economy expanded by 6.2% in October-December, picking up on increased government and consumer spending, official data showed on Friday, and the government said it expected a further acceleration in the current quarter. The stronger rural economy also bolstered the world's fifth-largest economy in the final quarter of 2024, but manufacturing growth remained subdued. India is still the world's fastest-growing major economy, but it faces uncertainties over its trade with the United States.

Economic Growth Forecasts Tumble as Trump Tariffs Loom Δ1.77

Weaker-than-expected data has led to a decline in US economic growth forecasts, with some economists now predicting a slower pace of growth than initially thought. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool projects a 2.8% decline in the first quarter, down from a previous projection of a 1.5% decline. Uncertainty around President Trump's tariff policy appears to be weighing on business activity, particularly in the manufacturing sector.

Stocks Rebound Amid Tariff Relief Hints Δ1.77

U.S. stocks rebounded on Wednesday as Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick suggested potential tariff relief for Canada and Mexico, sparking investor optimism. The S&P 500 added 1.1%, while the Nasdaq 100 climbed 1.4%. General Motors' stock surged over 3% in response to Lutnick's remarks, potentially driven by hopes for a compromise "in the middle."

TSX Rallies But Still Posts Biggest Weekly Decline in 2025 Δ1.77

Canada's main stock index, the S&P/TSX composite, rebounded by 0.7% on Friday, driven by a boost in energy shares from rising oil prices, but still recorded a 2.5% decline for the week, marking its largest weekly drop since December. Despite this rally, disappointing job growth figures and ongoing tariff threats from the U.S. create a climate of uncertainty that could influence the Bank of Canada's monetary policy decisions. Investors are now anticipating a rate cut next week, reflecting concerns about the broader economic impact of trade tensions and labor market stability.

US Services Sector Expansion Brings Tariff Uncertainty and Inflation Concerns Δ1.77

U.S. services sector growth unexpectedly picked up in February, with prices for inputs increasing amid a surge in raw material costs, suggesting that inflation could heat up in the months ahead. Rising price pressures are worsened by tariffs triggered by President Trump's new levies on Mexican and Canadian goods, as well as a doubling of duties on Chinese goods to 20%. The Institute for Supply Management survey showed resilience in domestic demand but was at odds with so-called hard data indicating a sharp slowdown in gross domestic product this quarter.

Canada Hits Back at US Tariffs After Warning of 'Existential Threat' Δ1.77

Canada has implemented retaliatory tariffs on US goods in response to the 25% tariffs imposed by President Trump, citing an "existential threat" to its economy. The tariffs target approximately C$155 billion worth of American products, raising concerns over job losses and economic repercussions in both countries. Canadian leaders have condemned the US measures as reckless, warning that they could push both economies towards recession and increase prices for consumers.

Inflation Relief Fueling Stock Market Rally Δ1.77

The S&P 500 is experiencing a modest recovery from its year-long slump, with stocks turning higher in early Friday trading as investors breathe a sigh of relief over the potential for inflation relief. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecaster has revised its estimate of first-quarter GDP growth to a 1.5% decline, down from its prior estimate of a 2.3% advance, and Treasury yields have retreated amid President Trump's renewed tariff threats. The market is now looking to close out a difficult month with some modest index gains.

Canada Retaliates, Puts Tariffs on $107 Billion of US Products. Δ1.77

The Canadian government has taken swift action against the US after President Trump's executive order, imposing a sweeping package of counter-tariffs on $107 billion worth of US products. The move is expected to disrupt one of the world's largest bilateral trade relationships, worth over $900 billion in annual goods and services, and will have significant implications for businesses and consumers across both countries. Trudeau has vowed to protect Canadian industries and workers from what he sees as an unjustified decision by Trump.

Canada's Retaliatory Tariffs on US Goods to Start Tuesday, PM Trudeau Says Δ1.76

Canada will impose 25% tariffs on C$155 billion ($107 billion) worth of U.S. goods from Tuesday if U.S. President Donald Trump's administration follows through with its proposed tariffs on Canadian goods, allowing the country to safeguard its economy and protect domestic industries. The move is a response to the U.S. trade action, which Trudeau described as "unacceptable" and "a clear threat to our sovereignty." Canada's government has been seeking ways to counter the tariff hike, including exploring non-tariff measures.

Canada Commits over C$6 Billion to Fight Impact of US Tariffs, Find New Markets Δ1.76

Canada has unveiled a significant aid package worth over C$6.5 billion to support businesses and individuals affected by U.S. tariffs, providing financial assistance, loan options, and modified employment insurance rules. The relief measures aim to help companies tap into new international markets, absorb losses, and prevent layoffs, addressing the potential economic impact of the trade dispute. These moves demonstrate Canada's efforts to mitigate the effects of the tariffs on its economy.

Traders See Three Fed Cuts in 2025 as Tariffs Add to Growth Risk Δ1.76

Traders are increasingly betting on interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve due to concerns about the impact of US trade tariffs on global economic growth. The imposition of new tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China has sparked worries that the US economy may be slowing down. Market participants are now pricing in three quarter-point rate cuts by 2025, marking a significant shift in expectations.

Tariffs Imposed on Canada and Mexico Signal End of Negotiations Δ1.76

US stocks plummeted on Monday afternoon as selling accelerated after President Trump indicated there was "no room left" for tariff negotiations with Canada and Mexico, with levies against both countries set to go into effect tomorrow. The S&P 500 fell more than 2% while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dropped 3%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.8%, as the major US indexes came off a volatile week and a losing February. Investors are bracing for tariffs, the monthly jobs report, and key retail earnings.

China and Canada Hit Back as Trump Tariffs Kick In. Δ1.76

Canada, Mexico, and China have announced plans to retaliate against newly imposed U.S. tariffs, with Canada pledging 25% tariffs on $150 billion worth of U.S. goods. The tariffs, which include 25% on Canadian and Mexican goods and 20% on Chinese imports, have spurred fears of a trade war, resulting in a decline in global stock markets. Analysts warn that these tariffs could lead to increased prices for U.S. households and ripple effects on consumers worldwide.

Stock Futures Point to Rebound While Bitcoin Sinks: Markets Wrap Δ1.76

S&P 500 futures showed a slight increase as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, which could influence future interest rate decisions. Meanwhile, Bitcoin experienced a significant decline of over 25% since its January peak, driven by fears of a trade war following President Trump's tariff announcements. The broader market remains cautious, with concerns about the potential economic impacts of the proposed tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China.

Economy Expects Continued Growth but Sees Risks Δ1.76

St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto Musalem expressed confidence in the US economy's continued expansion this year, but acknowledged that recent weaker-than-expected consumption and housing data have raised concerns about possible risks to growth. The labor market remains healthy, and financial conditions are supportive, but these positive trends are tempered by mixed reports from business contacts and slowing business activity. Despite these cautionary signs, Musalem expects the economy to grow at a good pace in coming quarters.