Global Aluminium Producer Seeks Q2 Premium of $260/T From Japan Buyers
A global aluminium producer has sought a premium of $260 per metric ton from Japanese buyers for April-June primary metal shipments, up 14% from the current quarter. The proposed premium reflects concerns that fresh U.S. tariffs on Canadian aluminium could divert supply from the Middle East, Australia or other regions to North America, tightening availability in Asia. This move is part of a broader trend of price volatility in the global aluminium market due to trade tensions and supply chain disruptions.
The surprise increase in proposed premium highlights the ongoing vulnerability of Asian aluminium importers to fluctuations in global supply and demand, reflecting the industry's increasing reliance on international trade.
How will the implementation of tariffs on Canadian aluminium imports from the US impact the regional price dynamics and availability of this critical metal in Asia?
The price premiums for aluminium on the physical market in the United States have surged to a record high due to the looming threat of tariffs on imports of the metal used in the transport, construction and packaging industries. The U.S. Midwest duty-paid aluminium premium at above 40 U.S. cents a lb or nearly $900 a metric ton is up nearly 60% since the start of 2025. Aluminium production capacity in the United States cannot meet domestic demand, leading to potential diversion of imports to other regions.
As global aluminium supply chains face unprecedented pressure, countries may need to reevaluate their strategic partnerships and trade agreements to mitigate the risks associated with supply disruptions.
Will the escalating US trade policies lead to a surge in investment in domestic alternative metal production, such as lithium or magnesium, which could potentially reduce dependence on imported aluminium?
Dalian iron ore futures slid for a seventh consecutive session, with prices falling following reports that Chinese steel mills are reducing production to ease pollution levels ahead of the annual National People's Congress (NPC) meeting. The most-traded May iron ore contract on China's DCE closed down 1.14% at 781 yuan ($107.26) a metric ton, amidst ongoing trade tensions with the US. Tariff hikes on Chinese goods and restrictions on US firms are also affecting export outlooks.
The escalating trade tensions between China and the US will likely have far-reaching consequences for global commodity markets, including iron ore, and may lead to a more volatile market environment.
How will the impact of these tariffs on global supply chains and production costs be felt in other industries, such as construction and manufacturing?
Some say the US tariffs have unified their country, with others pledging to fully avoid American products. Trudeau has also announced that Canada will implement a 10% tariff on steel imports from the US and 5% on aluminum. This move marks a significant escalation in the ongoing trade tensions between the two nations.
The controversy surrounding Trump's tariffs highlights the complexities of global supply chains, where small increases in taxes can have far-reaching implications for entire industries.
How will Canada navigate its relationships with both the US and China as it seeks to protect its domestic economy from the effects of increased tariffs?
Iron ore futures fell for a sixth straight session on Monday amid rising trade tensions between the U.S. and top consumer China, outweighing upbeat Chinese manufacturing data. The most-traded May iron ore contract on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) ended daytime trade 2.81% lower at 779.5 yuan ($106.91) a metric ton. Earlier in the session, prices hit 777.5 yuan, the lowest since January 14.
The escalating US-China trade tensions are having far-reaching consequences for global commodity markets, particularly those that rely heavily on Chinese demand and supply chains.
How will the ongoing trade tensions impact the sustainability of China's economic recovery, which appears to be gaining momentum despite recent sluggish growth data?
JP Morgan expects the global deficit in refined copper to grow to 160,000 metric tons in 2026 and forecast copper prices averaging around $11,000 per metric ton next year. The bank predicts a tariff rate of at least 10% on refined copper and copper product imports will be enacted by late in the third quarter, with a significant risk of a higher tariff rate of 25%. This would lead to excess inventory builds in the US and potentially leave the rest of the world shorter of copper.
The growing trade tensions between the US and its trading partners could have far-reaching implications for global supply chains, particularly in industries that rely heavily on copper.
What role will emerging technologies like electric vehicles and renewable energy play in driving demand for copper, and how will changing consumption patterns impact the global copper market?
Inalum's ambitious investment plan aims to significantly increase its production capacity, with a focus on building an aluminium smelter and a steam power plant. The company expects to reach production targets of 400,000 tonnes per year by 2018 and 500,000 tonnes by 2019, despite the challenges posed by global fluctuations in the aluminium market. This move is expected to bolster Indonesia's position as a major player in the global aluminium industry.
The scale of Inalum's investment plans could have significant implications for Indonesia's economic growth and its ability to diversify away from dependence on commodity exports.
How will the increased production capacity of Indonesian aluminium producers impact the country's energy consumption patterns, particularly with regards to steam power generation?
Zhengzhou rapeseed meal and oil contracts jumped on Monday, the first day of trade since China decided to impose 100% tariffs on imports of those products from Canada. The most-active rapeseed meal futures on the Zhengzhou exchange climbed 6% to close at 2,611 yuan ($360) per metric ton - the biggest daily rise since September 2022. Rapeseed oil futures closed up 5.07% to 9,204 yuan ($1,270) per ton.
This sudden escalation in tariffs highlights China's ability to rapidly respond to perceived market disruptions and protect its domestic producers from international competition.
Will the Chinese government's decision to impose these tariffs on Canadian rapeseed meal and oil lead to increased tensions between the two nations, potentially affecting broader trade relations?
China is set to impose tariffs on some Canadian goods in retaliation to Canada's levies on Chinese electric vehicles and metals, marking a further escalation in the global trade war. Beijing stated that it will impose 100% tariffs on rapeseed oil, oil cakes, and peas, alongside a 25% import levy on aquatic products and pork from Canada, effective 20 March. The move follows China's series of tariff decisions by US President Donald Trump last week, which doubled Chinese import levies to 20%.
The escalating trade tensions between China and Canada highlight the complex web of supply chains that underpin global commerce, where even minor disputes can have far-reaching consequences for industries and economies worldwide.
What will be the impact on Canadian farmers who rely heavily on exports to China, particularly in terms of job security and revenue stability?
US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has signaled that the scheduled 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, set to take effect on March 12, will not be reprieved. The levies, ordered by President Donald Trump in February, have been met with resistance from US steelmakers who argue they risk hitting domestic companies that use aluminum and steel. Lutnick attributed the policy to cracking down on countries like Russia and China bypassing existing duties.
This hardline stance on tariffs may ultimately backfire, as it could alienate key trading partners and accelerate a global trade war that would disproportionately harm US manufacturers.
How will the ongoing trade tensions, particularly with China, affect the global supply chain for critical materials like semiconductors and renewable energy technologies?
China has announced tariffs on over $2.6 billion worth of Canadian agricultural and food products, retaliating against levies Ottawa introduced in October, amid a trade war largely driven by U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff threats. The levies match the 100% and 25% import duties Canada slapped on China-made electric vehicles and steel and aluminium products. Beijing may be keeping the door open for trade talks by excluding canola, but the tariffs also serve as a warning shot, analysts say.
The escalating trade tensions between China, Canada, and the US highlight the complex web of interdependent economies and the limited room for maneuver in global trade politics.
How will this latest round of tariffs impact the Canadian agricultural sector's competitiveness in the global market, particularly with regards to exports to China?
Canada has requested consultations with the United States at the World Trade Organization over "unjustified tariffs" imposed on Canadian imports, citing a need to protect its interests. The move comes as tensions between the two nations escalate, with Canada announcing retaliatory tariffs of C$30 billion and potentially another C$125 billion in 21 days if necessary. The dispute raises concerns about the impact on global trade and the potential for a new trade war between the world's largest economies.
The escalating tit-for-tat approach to trade disputes may lead to a destabilization of international trade relationships, where even seemingly minor irritants can escalate into full-blown conflicts.
What are the implications for the global economy if this trend towards protectionism and retaliatory measures continues, potentially limiting access to critical goods and services?
Asian shares experienced a notable increase Thursday, reflecting a positive shift on Wall Street following President Donald Trump's decision to ease certain tariff hikes for U.S. automakers. This move, which includes a one-month exemption from a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, has alleviated fears of a more extensive trade war that could negatively impact economies and raise inflation. Optimism is further fueled by reports from China indicating a commitment to boost domestic consumer spending, contributing to a rally across various Asian markets.
The interplay between U.S. trade policies and Asian market performance highlights the interconnectedness of global economies, where decisions made by one nation can ripple through financial markets worldwide.
What long-term effects might these tariff negotiations have on U.S.-Asia trade relations and the stability of global markets?
US steel prices have surged above $900 a ton, exceeding imported steel prices, amid uncertainty over the upcoming 25% tariff on foreign supplies. The tariff threat has emboldened domestic steelmakers to raise prices, despite unchanged demand, and is affecting supply lines globally. The situation has raised concerns about the impact of protectionist policies on the global economy.
This phenomenon highlights how tariffs can become self-reinforcing, creating a cycle of price increases that can have far-reaching consequences for industries and economies worldwide.
How will the ongoing uncertainty around US trade policies affect the long-term competitiveness of American manufacturers compared to their foreign counterparts?
China has announced retaliatory tariffs on some Canadian farm and food imports, including rapeseed oil, oil cakes, and peas, with additional 100% duties and 25% tariffs on pork and aquatic products. The new measures come into effect March 20 and are a response to Canada's imposition of duties on Chinese-made electric vehicles and steel and aluminum products in October. The move adds to the already high levels of global trade tensions between the countries.
This development highlights the intricate web of retaliatory tariffs that has developed in recent years, with each side seeking to protect its domestic industries from perceived unfair competition.
How will these escalating trade tensions impact the already struggling Canadian agricultural sector and its export competitiveness in the global market?
Gold prices rose significantly after President Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs on Canada and Mexico, prompting swift retaliatory measures from these countries and China. The escalation of the trade war has led to a surge in demand for safe-haven assets like gold, which climbed above $2,915 an ounce as Beijing imposed 15% duties on some American farm goods. Geopolitical tensions have also fueled investor concerns about economic instability.
This significant increase in gold prices may signal a shift in investor sentiment towards more stable assets, potentially reflecting growing anxiety about the ongoing trade war and its implications for global markets.
Will central banks' response to this surge in safe-haven asset demand lead to increased interest rates or monetary policy easing, which could have further far-reaching consequences for financial markets?
Honda has announced that it will produce its next-generation Civic hybrid in Indiana, rather than Mexico, to avoid potential tariffs on one of its top-selling car models. The decision highlights the significant impact of U.S. President Donald Trump's proposed 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada on the automotive industry. Honda's move is a concrete measure by a major Japanese car company to adapt to the changing trade landscape.
The shift in production plans underscores the increasingly complex web of global supply chains, where companies must navigate rising costs, shifting markets, and regulatory changes to remain competitive.
How will the ongoing tariffs debate influence the long-term competitiveness of American automobile manufacturers and the country's position as a hub for automotive production?
Gold rebounded after its worst week of the year as investors weighed the potential impact of Trump tariffs, with gold futures gaining more than 1.5% on Monday to hover below $2,900. The precious metal's recent move higher comes as President Donald Trump's latest tariff deadline approaches at the end of Monday, with potential new duties starting Tuesday morning on America's top three trading partners. Strategists attribute much of the rally to continued central bank buying and uncertainty over US tariffs.
This surge in gold prices highlights the market's growing reliance on safe-haven assets as investors increasingly view trade tensions and economic uncertainty as major risk factors.
How will a potential escalation of trade tensions between the US and its trading partners affect the global supply chain, particularly for commodities like gold?
China's gold reserves rose to 73.61 million fine troy ounces at the end of February from 73.45 million at the end of January, as the central bank kept buying the precious metal for a fourth straight month, further fueling investor sentiment and supporting the gold price amid rising geopolitical uncertainty and trade tensions with the US. The PBOC's continued purchases are seen as a key factor in underpinning gold prices, but also pose questions about the sustainability of such policies. Central banks' gold buying has been instrumental in driving gold prices up over the past two years.
This uptrend in central bank gold buying highlights the evolving role of monetary policy in shaping precious metal markets, where state-backed purchases can have far-reaching implications for global supply and demand balances.
Will the PBOC's ongoing gold buying effort be enough to shield China's economy from potential downturns triggered by trade tensions with the US and rising domestic debt?
CIBC Capital Markets has downgraded its rating on Canadian auto parts manufacturers Linamar and Martinrea, warning that U.S. tariffs pose an "existential threat" to the industry. The move follows President Donald Trump's announcement of a 25% tariff on imported goods, with potential implications for automotive suppliers crossing the Canada-U.S. border multiple times before incorporation in finished cars and trucks. Analysts predict that the tariffs will have a significant impact on the auto parts sector, potentially leading to reduced supply chain efficiency.
This warning highlights the intricate web of global trade relationships and the interconnectedness of industries, where seemingly minor changes can ripple through complex networks.
What are the long-term implications for Canada's manufacturing industry as a whole, and how will the U.S. tariffs on auto parts affect the country's economic competitiveness?
The Commerce Secretary hinted that relief from 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports may be granted for products compliant with the existing trade pact, potentially benefiting automakers and foreign brands with significant US production footprints. The proposed arrangement could include exemptions for companies demonstrating investment plans in US auto production, while also eliminating tariffs on Canadian energy imports. However, details of the potential changes are far from agreed upon, leaving uncertainties about the future of the trade deal.
This development may signal a shift towards more targeted and industry-specific trade policies, potentially altering the dynamics of global supply chains.
How will the implications of this exemption policy impact the long-term competitiveness of the US automotive sector in the face of increasing competition from Asian manufacturers?
Best Buy has issued a warning to American shoppers about potential price increases due to the implementation of new tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, which took effect on Tuesday. The company, which relies heavily on Chinese goods, expects fiscal year 2026 comparable sales to be in the range of flat to up 2%, largely below analysts' average expectations of a 1.71% rise. Shares of Best Buy reversed earlier gains to be down 1.3% in premarket trading as the pain from tariffs overshadowed a surprise rise in comparable sales during the holiday quarter.
The escalating trade tensions between the US and China could lead to a broader shift in consumer behavior, with shoppers increasingly opting for domestic or tariff-free products.
How will Best Buy's pricing strategy adapt to the changing landscape of global supply chains, potentially leading to increased costs for consumers?
ASML, the computer chip equipment maker, reported that uncertainty over export controls had weakened customer demand in 2024, with macroeconomic uncertainty including technological sovereignty and export controls leading customers to remain cautious and control capital expenditure. The company faces ongoing risk from increasingly complex restrictions and possible countermeasures as it tries to navigate China's tightening export curbs. Despite this, ASML repeated its 2025 sales forecasts of 30-35 billion euros, which include the AI boom boosting demand for its EUV lithography systems.
The increasing reliance on Chinese entities subject to export restrictions highlights the vulnerability of global supply chains in the high-tech sector, where precision and predictability are crucial for innovation.
Will ASML's ability to adapt to these changing regulations, coupled with the growth of the AI market, be sufficient to offset the negative impact of export controls on its sales projections?
Oil edged up on Monday as upbeat manufacturing data from China, the world's biggest crude importer, led to renewed optimism for fuel demand, although uncertainty about a Ukraine peace deal and global economic growth from potential U.S. tariffs loomed. Brent crude climbed 19 cents, or 0.3%, to $73.00 a barrel by 0720 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $69.95 a barrel, up 19 cents, or 0.3%. China's manufacturing activity expanded at the fastest pace in three months in February as new orders and higher purchase volumes led to a solid rise in production.
The interplay between China's economic recovery and global oil prices highlights the complex dynamics of commodity markets, where both supply and demand factors are subject to significant uncertainty.
Will the ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine continue to impact the global energy landscape, potentially leading to increased volatility in oil prices?
Canada, Mexico, and China have announced plans to retaliate against newly imposed U.S. tariffs, with Canada pledging 25% tariffs on $150 billion worth of U.S. goods. The tariffs, which include 25% on Canadian and Mexican goods and 20% on Chinese imports, have spurred fears of a trade war, resulting in a decline in global stock markets. Analysts warn that these tariffs could lead to increased prices for U.S. households and ripple effects on consumers worldwide.
This escalation highlights the growing tensions in global trade dynamics, with countries increasingly willing to challenge U.S. economic policies that threaten their interests.
What long-term implications might these tariff disputes have on international trade alliances and economic relations among major global players?
South Korea aims to ensure interests of its firms are safeguarded as the country seeks a tariff exemption in talks with the US administration. Seoul’s industry minister requested exemptions from the administration of US President Donald Trump amid plans to impose new tariffs on steel and aluminium globally, including on South Korea. The US-Korea Free Trade Agreement allows most goods to be traded without tariffs, but concerns are growing about the impact of these measures.
The situation highlights the vulnerability of countries with complex trade relationships, where a single change in tariff policy can have far-reaching consequences for industries like shipbuilding and advanced manufacturing.
What would happen if other major trading partners, such as Japan or Australia, were to follow suit with similar tariffs, disrupting global supply chains?