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Immigration Policy Could Be The Key To Inflation And Market Shifts, Investors Warn

President Donald Trump's immigration policies are getting a lot of attention from both economists and investors. The new restrictions and plans for mass deportations could have a big impact on the U.S labor market, inflation, and even the Federal Reserve's decisions on interest rates. While tariffs have been a big focus in financial discussions, analysts say that immigration policy could end up having an even bigger effect on the economy.

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US Economic Activity Up Slightly as Tariff Worries Rise, Fed Survey Shows Δ1.82

U.S. economic activity has shown a slight uptick since mid-January, although growth remains uneven across regions, with some districts reporting stagnation or contraction. The Federal Reserve's Beige Book highlights rising uncertainty among businesses regarding the impact of President Trump's tariff policies and immigration plans on future growth and labor demand. Amid these concerns, expectations for economic activity remain cautiously optimistic, despite warnings of potential inflation and slower growth.

Trump's Trade Policies Spark Uncertainty as Global Economy Teeters. Δ1.82

The Goldman Sachs CEO acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding President Trump's economic policies, stating that while the chance of recession in 2025 is small but not zero. Trump has implemented tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada, aimed at "leveling the playing field," although the end result remains uncertain. The bank's decision to remove diversity and inclusion sections from its annual filing was also influenced by changes pushed by the new U.S. administration.

Trump May Put US Into a Recession, Former Adviser Warns Δ1.81

The Trump administration's aggressive tariff policies could potentially put the US economy in recession, warns Anthony Scaramucci, a former Trump insider. Tariffs are a consumption tax that disproportionately affects low-income households, exacerbating income inequality and reducing consumer spending. As such, President Trump's plans to impose higher tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China may have unintended consequences for the overall economy.

Trump Set to Plow Ahead with New Tariffs that Could Surpass What He Did in His Entire First Term. Δ1.80

The latest round of tariffs from President Trump is expected to have a significant impact on the US economy, potentially causing a sharper decline in GDP than his previous tariffs. The proposed duties on Canada and Mexico alone are projected to surpass the economic toll of his entire first term if kept in place. This could lead to increased costs for American households, with estimates suggesting an additional $1,000 per household.

Inflation Data Set to Reveal Tariff Fears' Impact This Week Δ1.80

The US labor market added 151,000 jobs in February, just below expectations, while the unemployment rate inched up to 4.1%. Economists largely read the report as better-than-feared, given other signs of economic growth slowing. However, the looming question for markets remains when the Federal Reserve will actually cut rates again.

U.S. President Donald Trump's Tariffs Raise Recession Red Flags Δ1.79

The recent steep decline in Wall Street futures has raised concerns among investors about the potential impact of U.S. President Donald Trump's trade tariffs on the economy. The 91% of economists who view a downturn as likely under Trump's rapidly shifting trade policies are largely correct, given the uncertainty and volatility surrounding his trade actions. As markets struggle to come to terms with the implications of these tariffs, investors are increasingly looking for signs of weakness in major economies.

US Stocks Face Tricky Moment as Trump's Latest Tariffs Loom Δ1.79

U.S. stocks face a tenuous moment with the arrival of President Donald Trump's latest tariffs, which are expected to exacerbate concerns about growth and potentially cut into corporate profits. The duties on foreign imports are widely seen by analysts as likely to increase inflation, but investors are still trying to weigh the extent to which the president is using tariffs as a bargaining tool or if they will be lasting policies. Tariffs could pose challenges for companies by complicating supply chains or driving costs higher, leading to potential price increases for consumers.

US Economy Growth Outlook Clouds S&P 500 Rally Hurdles Δ1.79

Any rebound in the S&P 500 Index is likely to prove temporary amid concerns about the US economy, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists. The market has faltered this year on worries about lofty valuations for the technology behemoths. Investors have also questioned if President Donald Trump's America-First policies are likely to stoke inflation and lead to a slowing economy.

The Market's Bet on Recession Is Getting Wagers Δ1.79

Bond traders are signaling an increasing risk that the US economy will stall as President Donald Trump's chaotic tariff rollouts and federal-workforce cuts threaten to further restrain the pace of growth. The shift in market sentiment is being driven by a growing consensus that the administration's policies will deliver another inflation shock and roil global supply chains. Investors are positioning for the Fed to start easing monetary policy to jumpstart growth, leading to a steepening yield curve.

Trump Doesn't Preclude a Recession This Year Δ1.79

President Donald Trump acknowledged the possibility of a U.S. recession during a recent television interview, attributing potential economic challenges to the imposition of tariffs and federal government job cuts. He described the current period as a "transition," suggesting that while there may be short-term difficulties, his policies aim to restore wealth to America. The uncertainty surrounding these trade policies has contributed to fluctuations in stock markets, complicating the economic outlook.

Trump's Erratic Trade Policies Are Baffling Businesses, Threatening Investment and Economic Growth Δ1.79

The ongoing trade tensions under President Donald Trump are creating uncertainty among businesses, with rising tariffs causing economic pain through increased costs for importers and consumers, as well as complications in making strategic decisions about suppliers, locations, and prices. This uncertainty is particularly unsettling for multinational companies operating complex global supply chains, which may lead to delayed or canceled investments that hinder economic growth. The impact of Trump's trade policies on business investment is becoming increasingly evident, with some businesses, like Marc Rosenberg's ergonomic furniture company, struggling to adapt to the changing landscape.

Economic Growth Forecasts Tumble as Trump Tariffs Loom Δ1.79

Weaker-than-expected data has led to a decline in US economic growth forecasts, with some economists now predicting a slower pace of growth than initially thought. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool projects a 2.8% decline in the first quarter, down from a previous projection of a 1.5% decline. Uncertainty around President Trump's tariff policy appears to be weighing on business activity, particularly in the manufacturing sector.

Trump's Tariffs Risk Economic Turmoil - and Voter Backlash. Δ1.78

The president is making a high-stakes bet that could either reap major political dividends or seriously undercut his second term. Donald Trump has been threatening major tariffs on America's two largest trading partners, Canada and Mexico, for more than a month, and now appears to be taking action. The risk for the president is that his sweeping tariffs may drive up prices for businesses and consumers in the months ahead, damaging the health of the US economy.

The Impact of Tariffs on Market Sentiment Δ1.78

Jim Cramer has expressed concerns that the ongoing uncertainty around tariff policies is likely to continue influencing market movements. The constant mention of tariffs by President Trump has become a recurring theme, shaping the market environment and overshadowing other major economic concerns. This unpredictability has led to a shift in investor focus, with long-term interest rates plummeting despite continued large bond auctions.

Investors Reassured on Trump's Tax Remarks, Worry About Tariffs and Chipmakers Δ1.78

Investors expressed relief following President Donald Trump's commitment to tax cuts during his recent address to Congress, viewing it as a positive signal for business spending. However, concerns were raised about Trump's focus on tariffs and his proposal to eliminate a significant semiconductor manufacturing subsidy, which could negatively affect the U.S. economy and technological competitiveness. As market volatility continues in response to new tariffs on imports, the balance between tax incentives and trade policies remains a critical point of contention among investors.

Trump Hails Tariffs as US Economy Barrels Into Trade Wars Δ1.78

The US economy is facing significant uncertainty under President Donald Trump's policies, which have been accompanied by warning signs about inflation, factory activity, and consumer confidence. The president's address to Congress highlighted his defense of tariffs as a means to rebalance trading relationships he deemed unfair. However, the long-term implications of this strategy on the economy remain uncertain.

Trump's Tariffs May Impact Global Economy Δ1.78

The ongoing trade tensions and tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are having far-reaching implications for global economies and businesses. The imposition of tariffs on key trading partners, such as Canada and Mexico, has raised concerns about the potential impact on inflation and interest rates. Meanwhile, the US manufacturing sector is experiencing a slowdown due to the tariffs, with production stabilized and destaffing continuing.

Trump Tariffs Threaten to Derail Canada's Economic Recovery Δ1.78

Two years of economic growth may be wiped off permanently. Unemployment could rise to 8% from 6.6% in January, analysts say. At least 90% chance of Bank of Canada cutting rates next week.

Investors Say It's Time to Take Trump Seriously as Markets Recoil Δ1.78

Markets are recalibrating their expectations regarding Donald Trump's economic policies, anticipating a slowdown in growth as he implements significant tariffs on imports from major trading partners. The response from investors has shifted from optimism about rising yields and a strong dollar to a more cautious outlook, with many fleeing to defensive sectors as volatility increases. The evolving trade landscape has left investors grappling with uncertainty, as the potential for retaliatory measures and further tariffs complicates market dynamics.

Trump's Trade Policy: Tariffs and Tariff Exemptions Δ1.78

US President Donald Trump's trade policy is reshaping US trade relations with friend and foe alike. The implementation of tariffs on key trading partners, including Canada and Mexico, has significant implications for inflation, interest rates, and the broader economy. The recent announcement of a one-month tariff exemption for automakers in the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement also highlights the dynamic nature of Trump's trade policies.

Trump Chaos Pushes Central Banks Into Shadows Δ1.78

The recent turmoil surrounding President Donald Trump's economic policies has forced central banks to adopt a more passive role, as government actions take center stage in shaping market dynamics. With heightened uncertainty from trade tariffs and aggressive fiscal measures, investor confidence is wavering, leading to significant market fluctuations and concerns about a potential recession. This shift highlights the evolving landscape of economic policy, where fiscal measures are increasingly dictating market trends over traditional monetary policy strategies.

Morning Bid: New Trump Tariffs Take Effect, EU Also in Crosshairs Δ1.78

The U.S. has initiated new tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, marking a shift towards a more aggressive trade stance under Donald Trump's administration, with the potential for future tariffs targeting the European Union. Markets reacted swiftly to the news, with a notable sell-off in equities and a flight to bonds, as fears grow over the impact of these tariffs on global economic growth. The ongoing uncertainty surrounding trade policies is prompting traders to anticipate multiple interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, further affecting currency dynamics.

Trump Says US Economy in 'Transition' As Trade War Escalates Δ1.78

The US President's assertion that his administration's changes to tariff threats against some of its closest trading partners mark a "period of transition" raises questions about the accuracy of this assessment, given the growing evidence of economic uncertainty and potential recession. The ongoing tit-for-tat tariffs with China and Mexico have sparked concerns among investors, who fear higher prices and reduced growth in the world's largest economy. As the US economy teeters on the brink of a potential downturn, it remains to be seen whether Trump's "transition" will ultimately prove to be a successful strategy.

Wall St Set for Lower Open as Trade War Worries Weigh Δ1.78

Investors are increasingly cautious ahead of President Donald Trump's planned announcement of his full-fledged global trade policy, which is expected to deepen the already strained US-China trade relationship and further exacerbate existing tensions with Canada and Mexico. The ongoing trade war is putting pressure on corporate earnings, inflation expectations, and overall market sentiment, with analysts warning of potential cuts in interest rates by the Federal Reserve to mitigate the economic impact. As investors prepare for more uncertainty, many sectors are already experiencing significant losses.

US Services Sector Expansion Brings Tariff Uncertainty and Inflation Concerns Δ1.78

U.S. services sector growth unexpectedly picked up in February, with prices for inputs increasing amid a surge in raw material costs, suggesting that inflation could heat up in the months ahead. Rising price pressures are worsened by tariffs triggered by President Trump's new levies on Mexican and Canadian goods, as well as a doubling of duties on Chinese goods to 20%. The Institute for Supply Management survey showed resilience in domestic demand but was at odds with so-called hard data indicating a sharp slowdown in gross domestic product this quarter.