US Commerce Secretary Wants to Remove Government Spending From GDP
U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick's plan to strip out government spending from the gross domestic product (GDP) report could have significant implications for how the economy is measured and understood, potentially leading to a more accurate representation of private sector growth. This move aligns with Lutnick's stated goal of making GDP more transparent and free from what he sees as "wasted money" on government programs. The potential impact of this change on economic analysis and comparison with global peers is still uncertain.
Removing government spending from GDP could provide a clearer picture of the private sector's contribution to economic growth, potentially helping policymakers make more informed decisions about fiscal policy.
How might the removal of government spending from GDP affect our understanding of the economy's overall resilience and ability to weather recessions?
U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick's plan to strip out government spending from the gross domestic product (GDP) report would significantly alter the economic landscape, leading to increased volatility in data and potential distortions in measuring economic performance. The move is likely to have far-reaching implications for policymakers, economists, and businesses, as it would require adjustments to various financial metrics and indicators. Critics argue that such a change would undermine the accuracy of GDP calculations, making it difficult to compare economic growth across different regions and time periods.
This potential shift could lead to a renewed focus on private sector performance, potentially highlighting areas where governments can improve their efficiency and stimulate economic growth through targeted policies.
How will the removal of government spending from GDP impact the ability of researchers and policymakers to accurately forecast economic trends and make informed decisions about future investments and resource allocation?
Government spending could be separated from gross domestic product reports in response to questions about whether the spending cuts pushed by Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency could possibly cause an economic downturn. The Commerce Secretary's remarks echoed Musk’s arguments made Friday on X that government spending doesn’t create value for the economy. This move may obscure the impact of DOGE cuts on the economy, but it also raises concerns about how alternative measures of GDP would accurately reflect the true state of economic health.
By excluding government spending from GDP, the administration is essentially counting only those economic activities that generate profits, potentially leading to a skewed understanding of economic growth and stability.
How will this redefinition of GDP impact policymakers' ability to assess the effectiveness of their spending programs in driving long-term economic growth and development?
Trump administration officials are considering a new approach to measuring the economy's health, which may downplay the negative effects of downsizing federal agencies under Elon Musk's leadership. The proposed measure, based on Value Added by Private Industries (VAPI), aims to exclude government spending from the traditional GDP calculation. This change could be seen as an attempt to minimize the impact of DOGE cuts, raising concerns about transparency and accountability in economic reporting.
This proposed shift highlights the growing unease among economists about the lack of clarity on how Trump's policies will affect the economy, particularly when it comes to measuring its health.
How will policymakers navigate the complexities of evaluating the economic impact of executive actions when the traditional metrics may no longer provide a clear picture?
The US government's General Services Administration department has dissolved its 18F unit, a software and procurement group responsible for building crucial login services like Login.gov. This move follows an ongoing campaign by Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency to slash government spending. The effects of the cuts will be felt across various departments, as 18F collaborated with many agencies on IT projects.
The decision highlights the growing power struggle between bureaucrats and executive branch officials, raising concerns about accountability and oversight in government.
How will the dismantling of 18F impact the long-term viability of online public services, which rely heavily on the expertise and resources provided by such units?
Scotiabank economist Derek Holt claims that U.S. President Donald Trump and Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick are misrepresenting the fentanyl crisis to justify tariffs against Canada, which he argues is not a significant source of fentanyl. Holt describes the U.S. administration as "pugilistic" and asserts that the use of tariffs allows them to circumvent Congress, undermining genuine trade negotiations. He suggests that Canada’s only viable response is a robust counteraction, as the current U.S. trade stance is based on fabricated claims rather than substantive issues.
Holt's critique highlights the complexities of international trade where national security concerns can be weaponized, raising questions about the integrity of diplomatic negotiations and economic policies.
What implications might this approach have for future U.S.-Canada relations and the broader landscape of international trade agreements?
The U.S. budget is replete with dollars that don't equal a dollar, as some are worth far more, which only further distorts the math used to justify spending cuts. The proposed tax cuts would extend $4.5 trillion in tax savings over 10 years, but most of these benefits accrue to wealthier individuals rather than being spent, and there's little evidence to support the trickle-down effect promised by Trump and generations of Republicans. The plan aims to slash $1.5 trillion in expenses over the next decade, including $880 billion from Medicaid spending.
This shortsighted approach neglects the economic multiplier effects of government spending, where every dollar invested leads to a disproportionate increase in output.
Will the U.S. ever achieve fiscal sustainability if it continues down this path, which seems to be driven by ideology rather than evidence-based policy?
President Trump's tax plan could reduce federal revenue by $5 trillion to $11.2 trillion over the next decade, according to estimates from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. This plan would effectively increase the nation's debt by eliminating current or anticipated revenue sources and includes extending tax cuts from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Critics warn that there are severe fiscal consequences, particularly in regard to rising the national debt.
The potential economic growth sparked by Trump's tax plans could be offset by increased inflation and reduced government revenue in other areas, such as healthcare and education.
How will policymakers balance the competing demands of stimulating economic growth with ensuring the long-term solvency of the US debt?
U.S. President Donald Trump's stance on fentanyl-related tariffs remains unwavering despite growing concerns about their economic impact, with U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick stating that the president will not relent unless progress is made in combating the opioid crisis. The tariffs, which target steel and aluminum imports from Mexico, Canada, and China, are set to take effect as scheduled on Wednesday. Lutnick's comments come amidst fears of a recession in the United States, but he insists that the tariffs will lead to lower prices for American consumers.
The fact that Trump is willing to hold firm on these tariffs despite mounting evidence suggesting they may not be effective in reducing fentanyl production raises questions about the true motivations behind his stance.
Will the ongoing trade tensions between the US and its key trading partners ultimately outweigh the potential economic benefits of cracking down on fentanyl trafficking?
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has laid out the Trump administration's ambitious plans to reshape international trade relations through tariffs and sanctions, while also easing financial regulations on American banks. The new strategy is aimed at promoting American prosperity and upward mobility, with a focus on protecting domestic industries and boosting economic growth. By leveraging tariffs as a revenue source and negotiation tool, Bessent hopes to rebalance the global economic system in favor of the United States.
The potential for a more aggressive trade policy could have far-reaching implications for global supply chains and the competitiveness of non-American companies.
Will the new regulations and sanctions on Iran have a significant impact on its economy, or will they simply serve as a warning to other countries with similar practices?
Treasuries have dropped as investors wait for a reading on fourth-quarter US GDP growth, which may indicate the economy is slowing down. The two-year yield has risen four basis points to 4.11%, its biggest monthly drop since September, amid concerns about inflation and interest rates. Traders are weighing the potential impact of President Trump's trade policies and their effect on the economy.
The growing uncertainty surrounding economic growth and inflation may lead to a shift in market expectations, with investors increasingly focusing on monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve.
Will the upcoming GDP data provide clear guidance on the path forward for interest rates and monetary policy, or will it remain uncertain due to ongoing global trade tensions?
U.S. Senate Republicans pushed for the U.S. Congress to codify spending cuts identified by billionaire Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency on Wednesday, after the Supreme Court declined to let President Donald Trump withhold payments to foreign aid organizations. This move aims to formalize the spending reductions into law, preventing potential future disputes over their implementation. The proposal also seeks to address public concerns about the DOGE's methods and ensure accountability for its actions. Senate Republicans acknowledged that the Supreme Court ruling does not bode well for White House hopes of taking unilateral action on spending cuts.
The codification of these spending cuts could mark a significant shift in the balance of power between the executive branch and Congress, potentially limiting future flexibility in government spending decisions.
How will the involvement of Republican lawmakers and the role of Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency impact the overall structure and accountability of the federal government?
The central bank's GDPNow tracker is indicating that gross domestic product is on pace to shrink by 1.5% for the January-through-March period, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta measure. Early economic data for the first quarter of 2025 is pointing towards negative growth, with consumers spending less than expected during inclement January weather and exports being weak. The downgrade coincides with some other measures showing a growth slowdown.
This downgraded forecast raises questions about whether policymakers' expectations are too high, given the current trend in consumer confidence and rising inflation concerns.
How will monetary policy adjustments by the Fed respond to this growth slowdown, and what impact might these rate cuts have on the overall economy?
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model has signaled a concerning -2.8% growth estimate for the current quarter, a stark decline from previous projections and the fastest contraction since the pandemic lockdown. This drop is attributed to a combination of a record-high trade deficit and weakening manufacturing activity, reflecting broader economic uncertainties tied to President Trump's policies. As consumer sentiment falters and market indicators flash warning signs, the potential for a "Trumpcession" looms, raising questions about the Federal Reserve's next steps.
This unexpected economic downturn highlights the fragility of recovery in the face of political and trade-related uncertainties, suggesting that policy decisions carry significant weight in shaping real economic outcomes.
In what ways might the evolving economic landscape influence voter sentiment and policy priorities leading up to the next election cycle?
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has downplayed concerns that tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump will lead to an increase in inflation, citing China's ability to absorb the costs of the tariffs. The secretary expressed confidence in China's business model and stated that it will "eat any tariffs that go on." However, experts have raised concerns about the potential impact of the tariffs on the global economy and consumer prices.
The Treasury Secretary's downplaying of tariff concerns may be seen as a deliberate attempt to mitigate public anxiety, but this move raises questions about his understanding of economic reality.
How will the international response to U.S. trade policies, including China's potential retaliation, shape the trajectory of global trade and inflation in the coming years?
Weaker-than-expected data has led to a decline in US economic growth forecasts, with some economists now predicting a slower pace of growth than initially thought. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool projects a 2.8% decline in the first quarter, down from a previous projection of a 1.5% decline. Uncertainty around President Trump's tariff policy appears to be weighing on business activity, particularly in the manufacturing sector.
This weakening economic outlook underscores the vulnerability of global supply chains, where timely delivery of parts is crucial for meeting production goals, and may signal a more prolonged period of economic uncertainty.
Will policymakers respond to the growing concerns about trade tensions with aggressive monetary easing or fiscal stimulus, potentially alleviating some pressure on business investment and consumer spending?
The US economy is bracing for an uncertain period, with President Trump attributing recent market volatility to "big" changes that will ultimately boost growth. The president's comments, while avoiding a recession call, are part of a broader narrative centered on tax cuts and tariff revenue as the driving force behind economic renewal. Trump's approach remains at odds with concerns from top administration officials about the need for "detox" from public spending.
This shift in tone from the White House signals a fundamental rethinking of the relationship between government intervention, fiscal policy, and economic growth, which could have far-reaching implications for policy makers and investors.
How will the Trump administration's emphasis on long-term growth prospects over short-term stability impact the economic outlook for vulnerable populations and regional economies?
The latest round of tariffs from President Trump is expected to have a significant impact on the US economy, potentially causing a sharper decline in GDP than his previous tariffs. The proposed duties on Canada and Mexico alone are projected to surpass the economic toll of his entire first term if kept in place. This could lead to increased costs for American households, with estimates suggesting an additional $1,000 per household.
The escalating trade tensions under Trump's leadership may serve as a wake-up call for policymakers to reevaluate their approach to international trade and its impact on the global economy.
Will the US government's reluctance to confront these economic headwinds through targeted reforms lead to increased uncertainty and volatility in financial markets, ultimately undermining the country's long-term competitiveness?
Anneliese Dodds' resignation follows PM Starmer's slashing of foreign aid budget to boost defence spending. The UK's international development minister had criticized the move, stating it would harm British influence abroad and devastate those relying on aid. The cuts will now take effect, reducing Britain's overseas development budget from 0.5% to 0.3% of GDP.
The reduction in foreign aid could have far-reaching consequences for the UK's diplomatic relationships and its reputation as a global leader in humanitarian efforts.
How will the impact of these cuts on British public opinion be measured in terms of long-term political capital lost?
Trump's tariffs are set to hit the US economy at what appeared to be a challenging time even without new costs for businesses and consumers. The president said Monday that Tuesday night "WILL BE BIG," with the economy undoubtedly a major focus. Ahead of these expected tariffs, stocks got crushed on Monday. Economic growth forecasts have tumbled in recent days, as Yahoo Finance's Josh Schafer writes, highlighted by the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model projecting -2.8% GDP growth for the first quarter.
The timing of Trump's latest tariff moves could be seen as a calculated gamble, but it's unclear whether the US economy can absorb the shock without sparking a broader economic downturn.
How will the global response to these tariffs affect the already fragile supply chains and international trade relationships that have been impacted by the pandemic?
U.S. consumers cut back sharply on spending last month, the most since February 2021, even as inflation declined, though stiff tariffs threatened by the White House could disrupt that progress. Americans are becoming more cautious in their spending due to rising economic uncertainty and the potential impact of tariffs on prices. The decline in spending may be a sign that consumers are preparing for potential economic downturns.
This increase in caution among consumers could have far-reaching implications for businesses, as reduced demand can lead to lower profits and revenue.
How will policymakers respond to concerns about the potential negative effects of tariffs on consumer spending and inflation?
A controversial plan by U.S. Senate Republicans to make President Donald Trump's 2017 tax cuts permanent is raising warnings from party fiscal hawks and independent analysts of a potential "debt spiral" that could undermine economic growth. The plan, which bypasses Democratic opposition, would ignore projected revenue loss of more than $4 trillion by claiming that tax policy would remain unaltered. This move has sparked opposition among hardline Republican fiscal conservatives who see it as a way to break the bank.
The push for permanent tax cuts underscores the growing partisan divide on fiscal issues, where lawmakers are increasingly prioritizing short-term economic gains over long-term debt sustainability.
How will this plan impact the future of social safety net programs and other spending priorities in the face of mounting national debt?
U.S. stocks rebounded on Wednesday as Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick suggested potential tariff relief for Canada and Mexico, sparking investor optimism. The S&P 500 added 1.1%, while the Nasdaq 100 climbed 1.4%. General Motors' stock surged over 3% in response to Lutnick's remarks, potentially driven by hopes for a compromise "in the middle."
This rally highlights the interconnectedness of economic indicators, as shifts in trade policies can have far-reaching effects on the broader market and individual companies' stock prices.
How will the ongoing tensions between the U.S. and its trading partners influence corporate earnings and investor sentiment in the coming months?
US stocks fell but pared steeper losses on Thursday after Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick hinted that more temporary exemptions are likely within the Trump administration's current 25% tariff policy on Canada and Mexico. Investors continue to grapple with Trump's shifting tariff policy and worries about the economy. The major averages opened lower on Thursday as investors assessed the impact of President Trump's tariff policies and a disappointing sales outlook from Marvell (MRVL) weighed on tech stocks.
This move highlights the complexities of navigating trade policies, where small concessions can have significant implications for market sentiment and investor confidence.
How will the ongoing uncertainty surrounding tariffs impact the ability of businesses to make long-term investment decisions, particularly in industries heavily reliant on international trade?
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has expressed confidence in President Donald Trump's plans to implement tariffs on foreign nations, despite the recent market slump in reaction to the first round of levies on Canada and Mexico. He attributed the market volatility to a temporary phenomenon and argued that prices would not rise due to the tariffs. The focus, according to Bessent, is on Main Street, small businesses, and consumers.
The disconnect between Wall Street's concerns and the administration's priorities may be a sign of a deeper issue with the economic policy being implemented.
How will the implementation of tariffs impact the already fragile global supply chains, particularly in industries heavily reliant on international trade?
The US government has removed a directory of federal properties listed for possible sale, including iconic landmarks such as the Old Post Office in Washington D.C., due to an "overwhelming amount of interest" received by potential buyers. The decision comes on the heels of President Donald Trump's administration announcing a downsizing effort aimed at slashing the federal workforce and saving $105 billion through lease cancellations. However, budget experts have questioned the accuracy of these figures.
The sudden removal of this list may be seen as a strategic move to gauge public reaction before releasing new properties for sale, potentially setting the stage for a more controlled sell-off process.
How will the Trump administration's efforts to downsize the federal government impact the long-term preservation and management of America's cultural and historical heritage?